Another Manic Monday at the Markets

World over markets have crashed today , Dalal Street has been no different…crashing 751 points !

Todays Market map is all Red and A/D ratio is 1:5.5 .

Name	Trade	Change		52-wk Range
NIKKEI 225	10,473.09	465.05	4.25%	10,938.10 – 17,489.00
FTSE 100	4,749.64	120.7	2.48%	4,671.00 – 6,751.70
CAC 40	3,868.83	211.92	5.19%	3,844.63 – 5,882.07
DAX	5,516.78	280.25	4.83%	5,617.81 – 8,117.79
SSE Composite Index	2,173.74	120.05	5.23%	1,802.33 – 6,124.04
TSEC weighted index	5,505.70	236.53	4.12%	5,530.19 – 9,859.65
KOSPI Composite Index	1,358.75	60.9	4.29%	1,366.88 – 2,085.45
STRAITS TIMES INDEX	2,168.32	128.8	5.61%	2,239.75 – 3,906.16
HANG SENG INDEX	16,803.76	878.64	4.97%	16,283.70 – 31,958.40
S&P CNX NIFTY	3,602.35	215.95	5.66%	3,715.05 – 6,357.10
BSE SENSEX	11,801.70	724.62	5.78%	12,153.50 – 21,206.80

I expect more volatility ahead and things wont be rosy in the near future. The worse bit of news Rupee is also at an all time low of 47.45, its lowest since April 10, 2003, not good news when we are net oil importers and the oil we buy is being financed by oil cos and off balance sheet ‘Oil Bonds’. worse the govt has gone overboard with its borrowings

Well whoever said - FII inflows aren’t hot money!

No wonder, there were no comments from the Fin min today .

pic from sify

The latest news is that the North  Block is bucking under the pressure of the continuous crash in Rupee from the recent Rs 39 to today’s Rs 47.5 a whole 20+ % within a few months.

Worse there is a huge liquidity crunch as call rates are in double digits as there are outflows on account of Global liq crunch and FII Selloff worsened by adv tax payments and govt borrowing in bonds reaching 90% of annual budgeted figures sucking out local liquidity.

SEBI has just announced that the restrictions on P notes are off and RBI is announcing a cut in the CRR by 50 basis points.

Read: Sebi revises P-note norms, scraps ODI restrictions

CRR cut by 50 bps; move to infuse Rs 20Kcr into system

But will that be enough to stem the tide ?

Mostly not thanks to the global liquidity crises and the wholesale fii pullout

Month	Net Purchase
	/Sales
Sep-08	-7,937.00
Aug-08	-2,065.80
Jul-08	-1,012.90
Jun-08	-10,577.70
May-08	-4,917.30
Apr-08	979
Day
03-Oct-08	-1,046.00
01-Oct-08	-284.2

And maybe well see 10400 to 10500 sooner than later because the Dow just declined 800 points to break the crucial 10000 barrier reacting to the fall in other international markets , beating the recent 777 point decline.

So Is it time to buy and attempt to hold the falling knife ?  … will u put in some moolah in the markets ?

On Article 370

Read my post Why is Jammu Still Burning ?

This is an archival post on the above mentioned article of the constitution

Two part series by Arvind Lavkare

The indeterminate life of Article 370, I and Part II

S. Gurumurthy: ARTICLE 370 SHOULD GO

SHEIKH – AS A RULER.

The Sheikh favoured a situation where he could work out a constitutional relationship with India, in which he would be in a predominant position and would be the ruler. His sole aim was to
dethrone the Maharaja.

When Maharaja Hari Singh sent the S.O.S. pleading, “Please send your army and protect us, we are being subjected to arson, rape and destruction”, the Government of India still wanted to know what the only popular leader in J&K had in mind. Sheikh Abdulla who was in Delhi at that time also supported Hari Singh on his decision to accede to India. He sent a hand-written note to Jawaharlal Nehru agreeing to the Maharaja’s proposal. So, it is not merely the legal sovereign, Hari Singh, who was asking for accession, the Sheikh as the popular leader of Kashmir also wanted accession with India. This is on the records of Government of India. This is on the records of the United Nations also.

MATTER TAKEN TO U.N. – A HISTORICAL BLUNDER.

It was in these circumstances that, on the 25th October the famous ‘Operation Rescue Kashmir ‘ began. The Indian army drove out the invaders and was set to recapture the areas under Pakistani domination, including wha t is presently called ‘Azad Kashmir’. But, on 31st December, 1947 Jawaharlal Nehru committed what was later regarded as a diplomatic and political blunder in taking the Kashmir issue unilaterally to the United Nations. Pakistan was on the verge of a military collapse against India and yet Pakistan was unwilling to take the matter to U.N. because the popular opinion in J&K at that time was in favour of accession with India. And yet, we took the matter to U.N

May be, Jawaharlal Nehru erred. But, the fact remains that the fatal reference of Kashmir problem to the U.N. was made by India. It hangs around our neck even today. This was the position in December 1947. Eventually there was a ceasefire and the war ended on 1st January 1948.

FOUR POINTS.

Article 370, shorn of all its legal complications, lays down a four point criteria for the relationship between the Union of India and the State of J&K.

Firstly, Jammu & Kashmir state is one of the states of India.

Secondly, None of the provisions of the Constitution of India including fundamental rights shall apply to the state unless assented to by the constituent Assembly of the state to be formed.

Thirdly, No law, passed by the Parliament even in respect of  matters with reference to which only the Parliament can pass laws  under the constitution, shall apply to Kashmir unless assented to by the government of the state.

Fourthly, The President may by order specify that the provisions of Article 370 may cease to apply to the state of J&K but no such order shall be issued without the approval of the constituent Assembly, of the State.

GATEWAY OF INDIA

A topic like this is a complicated issue. It calls for intensive discussion. It concerns the integrity of this country. We have to study die geography and the history of this country. Shri V.P.Menon wrote that the country that does not remember its geography and history does so at its own peril. The importance of J&K was emphasised by him in these words. When he went on behalf of Sardar Patel to meet Maharaja Hari Singh on the 25th October, 1947, Hari Singh wanted accession. Shri V.P. Menon reported that to the Government of India and recommended that we should accept the offer of Hari Singh. Sardar Patel supported him, but Jawaharlal Nehru opposed. But V.P. Menon said it was through J & K that Mohammed of Ghazni invaded India 17 times. It was the gateway of India. Those who control that stretch of land controlled this vast country.

Teng and Gadoos: White paper on Kashmir

The Instrument of Accession was evolved by the Secretary in the State’s Ministry of the Government of the Indian Dominion, V.P. Menon in consultation with the Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten, and with the approval of the State’s Minister, Sardar Patel.

Menon persuaded Patel to accept the accession of the States on the basis underlined by Cabinet Mission, thus leaving the Princes in possession of all the powers of the government, except defence, foreign affairs and communications.

In May 1949, the Premiers of the State’s took a stupendous decision in a Conference at Delhi, in which the Negotiating Committee of the constituent Assembly participated and entrusted the Constituent Assembly of India, the task of drawing up the Constitution for the States. In the meeting the Conference leaders blankly refused to accept the inclusion of the State in the constitutional organisation of India. They told the Indian leaders, in veiled words, that they favoured a separate constitutional organisation for the State in view of the Muslim majority character of its population which they feared would be subjected to the dominance of the Hindu majority in India.

Evidently, Article 370 was not in any way connected with the so-called autonomy of the State. In fact, it placed the State outside the federal structure of India, the federal division of powers between the Union and the States and the jurisdiction of the federal judiciary, including its power of judicial review, which guaranteed the autonomous identity of the States in India. Autonomy for the Indian States could only be visualised within the Indian federal structure and not outside the division of powers, it envisaged.

The accession of the States, brought about the irrevocable unification of the Princely States with the State of India, irrespective of whether they accepted to become a part of any future constitutional organisation of India. The integration of Jammu and Kashmir into the State of India was, therefore, brought about by the accession of the State to India and not by Article 370.

The oft-repeated assertion that Article 370 was an enabling act, was politically motivated and used by successive State governments to perpetuate the unrestricted power to rule by decree, vested in them, by Article 370.

The claim of the Conference leaders to plenary powers for the Constituent Assembly, which in the following years became the bane of a serious controversy between the National Conference and the Indian Government had a subtle and dangerous import. Plenary powers would vest in the Constituent Assembly a veto not only on all constitutional relationships between the Jammu and Kashmir State and the Union of India, but also on its accession to India.

History of National Integration

As part of the integration of various States into the country, a three-fold process of integration, known as “the Patel Scheme”, was implemented. As many as 275 States were integrated into five Unions: Madhya Bharat, Patiala and East Punjab States Union, Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Travancore-Cochin. These were included in Part B of the First Schedule of the Constitution. Besides, Hyderabad, Jammu & Kashmir and Mysore were also included in Part B.

At the time of accession to India, the States had acceded only on three subjects — defence, foreign affairs and communications. Later a revised instrument of accession was signed by which all States acceded in all matters included in the Union and Concurrent Lists.
The process of integration culminated in the Constitution (Seventh Amendment) Act, 1956, which abolished Part B States as a class and included all the States in Part A and B in one list.
However, Jammu & Kashmir was given special treatment based on the instrument of accession, which Maharaja Hari Singh had signed and which was accepted by the then Governor General of India.

When other States signed the revised instrument of accession, a blunder was committed by not asking the Maharaja to do the same. On the other hand, Article 370 was incorporated in the Constitution giving a special status to Jammu & Kashmir…From the Pioneer

In Vital National Interest

The Congress is hawking the Nuke Deal as something vital for national interest and energy security, as the floor test approaches. The question is why now at the fag end of the office when the Pm had almost written it off. Is it to divert attention from the governments failings ?

Worse the doubts increase manyfold when there is speculation that the time for getting the ball rolling might just have run out. read Has time for Indo-US nuclear deal run out?

A highly placed Congress source said the UPA has decided to contact MPs across the political spectrum, except those in the Left and the BJP, with a one-point plea – help the government to get the nuclear deal through in the national interest. read DNA

Somehow this national interest rhetoric gets scary when u remember how bush won elections and got consensus on going into iraq for WMD and to destroy Saddam’s regime as it had supposed link with the pan islamic jihad network, all based on suspicious intelligence.

Not that im against the deal, the fact still remains that sufficient debate among the experts and the intelligentsia on the deal has been lacking, and a very few scientists have been instrumental in the nitty grity, mainly Dr Kakodkar, who has worked all throughout in the background, discussing it with the Us and IAEA teams.

Some very prominant scientists are opposed to the deal Read Full text of the nuclear scientists’ letter to PM.

And as i had said before, the biggest plus from the deal was Australian Uranium, but uranium prices are not cheap and are leading the commodity boom. Read : Why Did the Price of Uranium Skyrocket? – Freakonomics

The openness with which this deal should have been pursued is missing. Worse the Americans have a lot more bargaining power than a minority party cobbled Indian govt which is desperate for pushing the deal through, that when China took more than a decade to sign a deal in terms favorable to it. The Congress/UPA was keeping the contents of the drafts secret and only released it when some American website published it on the net. Read : The ghost of ‘74

2 yrs since 7/11 Mumbai train blasts.

Its 2 yrs since the train blasts that rocked Mumbai. Flashback

The 11 July 2006 Mumbai train bombings were a series of seven bomb blasts that took place over a period of 11 minutes on the Suburban Railway in Mumbai (formerly known as Bombay), capital city of the Indian state of Maharashtra and India’s financial capital. 209 people lost their lives and over 700 were injured in the attack

Most Mumbaikars will never forget the incident, though its most likely that they wont have either the time or the patience for the niceties of laying wreaths or doing shoak sabhas or holding the 2 minutes silence, or having photo opps and holding functions.

See the Rediff special that says Railways remembers 7/11 victims, Mumbai doesn’t

The stupid reporter has forgotten that it was the public that first came to the aid of the blast victims not the Rail staff or non existent emergency services. Its a part of Mumbai culture to help each other in times of emergency or need knowing fully well how the system works in this country- something that was inculcated in the challs and congested communal housing. read Mumbai: ‘I’ll never forget 7/11 blasts’

I’m sure most politicians and IRS employees staying cosy in the prime govt bungalows and plush Badhwar park flats sure have, by the way the victims have been treated because the final test is not in laying wreaths on stone slabs but in rehabilitating the victims , and in that aspect the establishment – the state, the centre and the rail ministry have failed miserably.

Now the Rail ministry want to charge them interest Read: Railways recovering interest from blast victims.

And our great politicians have record breaking unpaid bills, which are somehow all but forgotten and PILs and court cases are needed to even attempt to recover dues. Pay your bills, HC tells MPs

For all the fanfare and footage after the blasts and the walking talking CM, the PM, Laloo and Presidents visit, the lip service , we will not bow down, cow down blabber blabber unflinching resilience bla bla – most victims have been left to fight their own battles.

Read 7/11 blast victims being harassed: Somaiya

A study commissioned by former MP Kirit Somaiya noted that that only 174 of the 1,077 victims had received compensation through the Railway Claims Tribunal. For the handicapped victims, only 15 out of 235 eligible cases had been taken care of. Regarding the Prime Minister’s promise to India concerning the rehabilitation of the victims, L. K. Advani noted:

“

none of the above mentioned assurances has been fulfiled to any degree of satisfaction[21]

Read about Mahendra Pitale, Lazarus Fernandes

2 years later, families of Mumbai’s train blast victims struggle with shattered lives

The then Mumbai top cop A N Roy (a political appointee) has gone on to become the DGP of Maharashtra, says: ‘I want 7/11 perpetrators punished’ – Is it lip service ? that when the police still don’t have a clue about the plot or its perpetrators . Remember, the case of the 1994 bomb blast still lingers on. read 7/11 serial blasts still teaser for Mumbai Police and Investigation at standstill

Frankly do our politicians really care about the non privileged aam admi? when it cant give its ex field marshal read Lack of courtesy to Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw and embassy officials due respect. read Do we treat our martyrs right?

No is public opinion because People are rushing to add terror cover to insurance policies. read Insure yourself before u board a Mumbai Suburban Train for some stats.

and are our Gandhivadi leaders commiting a cardinal sin?

Mumbai Property market cracking?

Mumbai Property market is correcting and hopefully correcting big time. I had expected it to correct at least 20 to 60 % from its peaks depending upon its grade as valuations had become unrealistic and the Greater fool theory ruled.

The last big sale happened about eight months ago when a flat measuring 3,475 sq ft (super built up) in the NCPA Apartments at Nariman Point was bought by a London-based NRI at the rate of Rs 97,842 a sq ft.

The market was showing signs of fatigue after the collapse of deal on the Citibank flat auction to BJP MP Vinod Khanna and his wife Kavita, who paid Rs 30 crore for the 2,500 sq ft (carpet area) flat located on the 13th floor of the B wing. The deal worked out to Rs1.20 lakh a square feet, an all-time high.

The stock market crash and more so the crash in property stocks that fell much below ipo prices some even by 70% from record highs coupled with the high inflation , high interest rates, tough background checks and rbi clampdown on loans to builders due to the property bubble has meant a sharp fall in demand and it shows. The shows hawking property on NDTV and CNBC and the paid news reports of properties still being a lucrative option, in prominent papers, have fallen to deaf ears as demand has simply crashed thanks to the builders desperately attempting to hold prices – some even taking huge loans at phenomenal interest rates ranging anywhere from 20% to 36% annually from the old marwadi moneylender network. read Now, moneylenders fund cash-crunched builders.

Little wonder – Property prices in new construction in Bandra have fallen.

Bandra, Khar, 3 months ago (per sq ft rate)
Rs 25,000 to Rs 22,000
Now
Rs 13,000 to Rs 16,000 ‘Rates in Bandra will fall to Rs 12k/sq ft’

Source Mid-day

Why does Indian media lack political satire shows?

Political Satire is a very important component of entertainment and plays a very important part of helping keep the public aware about national politics and politicians in general. People consider Politics as really boring and it is no coincidence that satirists play a vital role in forming opinions.

Most free countries in this world, have political satire shows be it Europe or America – every country has intelligent and gutsy political satire shows. America excels in this aspect where there are so many political commentators. Rambodoc has built his blog with his signature WEAKLY HUMERUS NEWS posts based on the text transcripts of entertainers and commemorators like Letterman, Novak, Hamilton and Bartez to name a few. And its only because of their belief in democracy that the president can be openly be lampooned by entertainers like Colbert (do watch the video)

Link here if the video doesn’t work.

Russia the totalitarian regime, had to ban Kukly on NTV and that was not all, the the state oil giant gazprom took over NTV rather unceremoniously to curb its free news/ independent reporting.

India has a very few shows NDTV/ NDTV India has one, GUSTAKI MAAF and its english avatar , both rippoffs of kukly but they are rather mild. Alpha Marathi channel had another Ghadle Bighadle (Done Undone) which was hugely popular and outed many of the inner dealings of Maharashtra’s political elite (i think it got shut down). The question is why are there so few a shows in India and is there self censorship by media houses to be in the good books of the state ?

Even the news has a degree of self censorship, and glossing over important issues.

Take the example of the current Amarnath row, when a highly opinionated Barkha D goes on record in her NDTV show saying – it is a jammu / kashmir issue – when the on ground situation shows a clear and amazing unity of the NC, PDP, some of the Congress politicians and the single Communist politician Muzaffar Beig and the separatist bunch Hurriyat or its splinter groups… and clearly on religious lines, as the state has been virtually shut down by all and sundry supporting this agitation to supposedly protect forest cover from destruction (where were they when the forests were being chopped down to fund the AKs? ) that too in the only Muslim majority state in India ( which has no minority commission to safeguard minority rights), which makes me think where has the Kashmiriyat gone ?

Persepolis…. Review

Persepolis is an animated film, based on Marjane Satrapi’s autobiographical graphic novel named after the famous city of Persepolis the capital city of the Persian Empire . The film was written and directed by Satrapi with Vincent Paronnaud.

This film is different and has a freshness to it. The animation is mostly in black and white and has a distinct simplistic style that grabs your attention.

It is an interesting coming of age account, of a young strong willed girl in the backdrop of the the Iranian Revolution, of life in Iran under the Mullah Theocracy, of a young teen and a and a free spirited rebel, born in a communist leaning straight talking passionate modernist family, and finally of the bond between grandmother and granddaughter.

It also shows how her family’s hopes for change were slowly dashed as the Islamic fundamentalists took power, drastically curtailing personal liberties, forcing head coverings on women and imprisoning thousands; and of the suffocation and frustrations of intelligent people under that conformist regime.

It also talks about her starkly opposite life in the west as an adolescent teenager in Europe and also about how the Europeans take democracy for granted among other things, of love and betrayal and of a girl growing into a woman.

The film won the Jury Prize at the 2007 Cannes Film Festival^[1] and was released in France and Belgium on June 27. In her acceptance speech, Satrapi said “Although this film is universal, I wish to dedicate the prize to all Iranians.”^[2] The film was also nominated for the Academy Award for Best Animated Feature.

Details Peresepolis (french) ( with english subs ) (and other languages)

Imdb rating 8.1, Wikilink

My rating 8/10, This movie is worth a watch, especially for family viewing, women and Older Teens.

Indian Inflation at 10% and Climbing..

Indian inflation is knocking the 10% door and there is no stopping it . The Fm’s lips are sealed cause he has lost face , now the advisers are doing the pep talking.

Here is an excellent must see interview by Cnbc with a very eminent economist Dr. Shankar Acharya.

Video Interview Dr Acharya Text link here

Essentially he is not saying anything new, as these facts are out in the open for a long time now but he is very candid in explaining the mess and the indecision by the UPA and Cabinet over the last 4 yrs in not increasing prices.

With inflation at 10%, cpi inflation march data at 17.9% , the current figure could be above 21%, and worse real inflation could just be a lot lot more my estimate around 50% . The interest rates are at 9.5% pa – so one is getting a negative yield on investment and ur sb interest , fd interest bonds etc are all giving negative returns.

Interest rates better move up, well above 10% or people will start thinking of alternative avenues to invest, the Fiis are the smartest and have been withdrawing money from India consistently since May.

Read a humorous take by India Play

The state govts borrowing program, and the India posts finances might go for a toss if the interest rates on Postal Deposits, NSC and MIS stay at 8% , as 80c lollipop is seldom useful to the non taxpayer who is the target audience of the postal bank.

Oil is still inching up and so are commodity prices and here is a 1 yr chart of the Nymex crude.

If it continues its upward march, and if the govt doesn’t act due to the coercive Karot threat, things can be a lot worse.. Deficits will mount while the consumption of subsidized fuel will also grow, thanks to price control. But being an optimist, and expecting some kind of intervention, lets hope for the best.

The Chinese have intervened with a raise in fuel prices at the pump , and sure it helps, the Nymex is down 4 $ but lets see if this is a short term solution, and how long the disastrous Indian subsidy policy will continue.

Ps though my neck is really suffering stress this post is a guilty pleasure

Indiana jones and the kingdom of the crystal skull – Review

Indiana Jones series are a cult favorite in the archaeological travel/adventure genre . Everyone knows or has at least seen some Indi movie . Ive slept through the raiders of the lost ark (was too young then) and barely remember the temple of doom, except that our beloved villian Amrish Puri was the dreaded kali pujari in that movie.

Indiana Jones and the kingdom of the crystal skull is produced by George Lucas. The movie is loosely based on the very western concept that Peru among other ancient civilisations like Egypt etc was ruled in ancient times by advanced alians who taught the Peruvian Incans among other things, to build an ancient civilisation. They also built a mythical temple in solid gold holding vast treasures, where people would go to attain knowledge and consult with the higher beings.

Photo source Wiki

It pits Indiana Jones (Harrison Ford) against Irina Spalko (Cate Blanchett) the Soviet Agent, in the search of the crystal skull that is supposed to lead them to the mythical temple. Indy is aided by his former lover Marion Ravenwood (Karen Allen), the greaser “Mutt” Williams (Shia LaBeouf), and fellow adventurer Mac (Ray Winstone). John Hurt and Jim Broadbent also play fellow academics. You can get more details and synposes in the wiki.

I was actually waiting for Amit to post on this one but as he didnt i said what the hell. I found the story a bit weak, but the action sequences were pretty good.All in all this is a bhelpuri of concepts derived from or inspired by among other movies, National Treasure , Stargate and The Fifth Element all of which i would rate much higher than this one.

This is a formula movie, an entertainer, especially for teens and gullable minds, a movie id recomend u see with friends in a theater or big screen.

My Ratings 6.5 5.5 out of 10 and im changing my ratings because in hindsight, i must admit i had been a bit too generous.

Power singers of the 80s

I grew up with this kinda music and here are a few powerful lady singers of that time..

Jennifer Rush – The Power Of Love

(most selling power ballad also sung by Laura Branigan and Celene Dion)

Whitney Houston – One Moment In Time (Grammy Awards Live)

Laura Branigan – Self Control

This song was ripped off in some stupid bollywood song with akshay kumar and Rekha .

MSM and Gloria Estefan

The Ripoff of this song in the movie Tridev got so hot that the mumbai police had to ban its singing on streets !

The Look – Roxette