UPAs PSU disinvestment challenge

After the recent psu issue ie Power Finance Co which saw an Over subscription of 6 times from QIBs, 2 times from public and 1.2 times from NIIs, i wonder how many issues the govt can push through on its own terms as it will soon face another impossible trinity of :-

1. Very  high oil prices , increase in subsidy bill and high fiscal deficits which directly leads to double digit inflation and interest rates.

2. Being cash strapped and wanting to finance its ballooning fiscal deficit and debt burden through PSU Disinvestment on its own terms , that too at close to market prices.

3. Using PSU companies as cash cows to bear subsidy burden , and increasing the burden on said shareholders resulting to crash in share prices of PSU Scripts.

One wonders how?

The solution is simple … look at QIB for subscription….

When there is LIC and Domestic Govt Institutions that are ready to bail it out and take losses on books everything is possible.

But then again will it be true disinvestment ? and why the drama?

Here are some stats:-

Equity Issue Price Current Price %Gain/Loss
Punjab & Sind 120 99 -17.5
MOIL 375 368.4 -1.76
SCI FPO 133 105 -21.06
Coal India 245 396.05 61.65
SJVN 26 21.3 -18.08
NTPC FPO 201 170 -15.42
NHPC 36 24.7 -31.39
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9 thoughts on “UPAs PSU disinvestment challenge

  1. somehow i believe it would be wise to hold punjab and sindh bank.

    decent FI which is available to discount to book value is something one should not miss.

    btw there are rumors of an SAIL FPO

    1. Yes i agree pns bank has to focus on tech and it will see a huge jump in valuation i have ipo stock and will add to it …
      Yes news about ongc sail etc …
      and they have come and got postponed
      the govt is desp about sail cause the commodity rally is almost past its peak and tisco issue stole its thunder
      qe2 is ending in june … commodities will take a hit
      so will sail and tisco
      what do u think about tisco dvr
      let us see how much pfc will give the aam admi
      … i expect single digit returns

      Was watching cornell return kaushik basus interview on profit , wow this man is so confused .. every second statement he made ran contra to his first statement …
      he says petrol prices are in psu perview … how amusing
      he said he is worried abt inflation going down half basis point yoy .. let him chk 10 yr trend then he will understand aam admis worry…
      the govt is reflecting his mindset…..

      im missing ur posts … esp on markets
      seems sell in may and go away worked for some!

  2. 1. i have fundamental problems with steel… there is overproduction in china and the way a blast furnance is structured it is very hard to cut down production from the design levels…

    so as china slows down, there will be more dumping of steel causing prices to fall further.

    however tata motors DVR is something i would like…. (i even wrote once about it) it provides a good arbitrage opportunity and was available at a 30% discount… ideal because that discount should shrink (and it did). however right now the best tata stock to invest is Tata Investment.

    btw can you share with me details about tata steel dvr.

    on PFC i expect about 7k returns per application…. nothing to write home about but enough to cover my losses.

    i also miss the action in the market… but these days my office is 2.5hr drive away and after marrige there is a dearth of free time.

    how is your portfolio doing?

  3. Marriage Congrats ! how is life on the other side??
    yes on the tata motor dvr
    yes but the steel crash has been postponed thanks to demand after the jap tsunami

    what is ur market call? i see some down days till rains come and settle
    already fiis r jittery thanks to the big upa fiscal mess ! and the bop shortfall
    my portfolio has been sleeping, as i had been busy with personal matters
    damn thing is when the markets are down i really get time to focus

  4. my portfolio has been sleeping for god knows how many years…
    but if i were you, i would wait for the monsoon forecasts…. yes i would loose about 2-3% doing that… plus there is no guarentee that govt will allow the meteology department (which is under govt) to publish negative results… but if by any chance the prediction is for a late/below normal monsoon then nobody can save the stock market.

    married life is a bliss… but yes it got me to stop reposting a lot of jokes that i typically used to do.

    any issues on your personal front that i can help you out with?

  5. Happy for u and Lol on jokes bit…

    in any case on monsoon predictions from bbc and other weather sites are much more unbiased just like bloomberg vs indian media

    I think i should mail u something about my personal front…

  6. took your advise and shorted 250 tata motors, bought 750 TELCO DVR (not tisco)
    also bought 300 punjab sindh and sold off the lakshmi food and energy stocks

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