Budget 2019 What matters most

Too many promises and lots of ideas but how and when will budget ideas be implemented and more importantly how will it be funded is a big ?? because funding is depending on private partnership. Secondly this budget is filled with contradictory goals

The govt wants 90000 crores from RBI , is going to borrow more and substantially enough that it wants to borrow sovereign debt in foreign funds .

Too much populism and mismanagement can make India another Pakistan and Argentina is a big big risk when governments depend on external debt to finance deficits in the distant future.

Budget is very Inflationary ! u will pay more excise and government earns more cess of at least 40000 crores vide oil tax on petrol and diesel. Expect everything to face inflation or mehengai tax even if there is no or little change in normal taxes.

Huge push on reviving a property market with more deduction of 150000 but middle class is over saturated with having empty second and third flats that they are unable to sell .  Model tenancy law will be revolutionary if it can meander through the complex and archaic legal system and free up locked empty houses for use thus increasing supply of rentable property, making postponing a property purchase more lucrative.

There is a big push for govt to recapitalize psu banks 70000 crores is huge but will the npa ko evergreen karo, ji mantri ji, chalta hai and corruption culture of babus in banks change ? will politicians meddling in banks and creating massive NPAs stop ? Essar RCom Kingfisher and Jet Air , N Modi are salient examples of crony capitalism.

INDIRA Gandhi had nationalized banks . The PSU banks have become bankrupt thrice received bailouts to keep them afloat  since then, showing the desperation of Rulers /mantris to control the strings of the economy.

Farmers and psu banks are good candidates for permanent bailouts. How do i become a farmer or a psu staffer ??

The markets are crashing as Modi govt policy reminds it of the Indira Era.

Govt has a disinvestment target of 105000 crores and wants to increase public shareholding to 35% but govt holdings will include PSU and LIC holdings (what hypocrisy).

The govt spells out vide policy to small investors – dont invest in PSU cos as it will keep dis-investing while keeping control .. an unmitigated disastrous way of destroying taxpayer and investor wealth. Wonder who will invest when even UPA era disinvestment is in losses . Atal era disinvestment candidates like  ONGC etc will be in losses very soon the way the govts want to milk them.

Govt wants to lay the red carpet for foreign funds but fails to understand that the local small investor is suffering and bleeding .

Govt it seems, want to incentivize the rich to QUIT India and follow Gandhi bapus advise , as it increases taxes on the rich with added cess .

Gold purchases will fall as u pay 2.5 % more,  Excise / Cess on oil will make more problems for Automakers which are already a all time lows .

Tax of 20% on buyback is ridiculous especially when govt reintroduced LTCG .

This will make a huge impact on investor psyche especially because the policy is shifting towards Indira era policy.

Excise / Cess on oil will make more problems for Automakers which are already a all time lows .

 

 

 

 

 

Budget 2019 Vote on account what matters most.

Budget math doesnt add up  .. it seldom does in India

The fisc deficit is more than 4.5 % of gdp say some pundits especially considering state govt loan mafis and schemes like raytu bandhu and nrega

When lawyers become FM fiscal math jugglery is a given.. like PC had used oil bonds and other tools to hide deficits ,, this govt has used small savings to lend to Air India , PSU ETF and LIC to fund IDBI and its disinvestment  etc which is putting small savers and lic policyholders and pension funds and eventually the taxpayer at a huge risk .

Inflationary.. please all budget .. RBI will have hands full dealing with inflationary impact

BUDGET 2019 Vote on account

1. Within 2 years, Tax assessment will be done electronically no manual intervention.
2. IT returns to be processing in just 24 hours and Refund given.
3. Minimum 14% revenue of GST to states by Central Govt.
4. Tax free Gratuity limit increase to 20 Lakhs from 10 Lakhs
5. No Taxes vide rebate us 87A upto 5 lakh annual income after all deductions.
6. INDL Income upto 6.5 lakhs  after deductions tax free
7. Standard deduction has increase from 40000 to 50000
8. Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194A has increased from 10000 to 40000

HAPPY BUILDER LOBBY and multiple home owners

8. No tax on second self-occupied house
9. Recommendations to GST council for reducing GST rates for home buyers
10. Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194I has increased from 180000 to 2400000. Ceiling Limit of TDS u/s 194I has increased from 180000 to 240000
11. Capital tax exemption u/s 54 has increased to reinvestment in two residential houses.
12. Benefit u/s 80IB has increased to one more year i.e. 2020
13. Benefit has given to unsold inventory has increased to one year to two years.

 

 

GENERAL Budget provisions

14. State share has increased to 42%
15. PCA restriction has abolished from 3 major banks
16. 2 lakhs seats will increase for the reservation of 10%
17. 60000 crores for manrega
18. 1.7 Lakh crore to ensure food for all
19. 22nd AIIMS has to be opened in Haryana
20. Approval has to be given to PM Kisan Yojana
21. Rs. 6000 per annum has to be given to every farmer having upto 2 hectare land. Applicable from Sept 2018. Amount will be transferred in 3 installments
22. National kamdhenu ayog for cows. Rs. 750 crores for National Gokul Mission
23. 2% interest subvention for farmers pursuing animal husbandry and also create separate department for fisheries.
24. 2% interest subvention for farmers affected by natural calamities and additional 3% interest subvention for timely payment.
25.Custom duty has abolished from 36 Capital Goods
26. Bonus will be applicable for workers earning 21000 monthly
27. The scheme, called Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Mandhan, will provide assured monthly pension of Rs. 3,000 with contribution of Rs. 100 per month for workers in unorganized sector after 60 years of age.
28. Our government delivered 6 crores free LPG connections under Ujjawala scheme
29. 2% interest relief for MSME GST registered person
30. 26 weeks of Maternity Leaves to empower the women
31. More than 3 Lakhs crores for defence
32. Custom duty has abolished from 36 Capital Goods
33. Single window for approval of India film makers

 

How to opt out of the HDFC Bank Preferred Banking Programme

HDFC bank uses underhand tactics which are unethical, to boost its revenue and to extract money from its account holders.

1. Search –  Welcome to HDFC Bank Preferred Banking Programme! in ur email
2. open that email
3. Opt out of that program
4. write an email to Talktous@hdfcbank.com and to ur RM and to ur bank manager.

u can also write a letter in duplicate and get a stamped copy if they dont comply .

 

Sec 80 C Options At a Glance – Fixed Income

Fixed Income Tax savings options under Sec 80C for all

For table 1 pf postal investments the rates are for current yr and next yr as there is downward revision

For 5 Yr Tax savings  Fds from banks the first rate is regular and second is senior citizen rate

FIXED INC	SENIOR	ALL	ALL	ALL
	CITIZENS
INVESTMENT	SCSS	PPF	NSC	MIS / FD
INC STATUS	TAXABLE	TAX FREE	TAXABLE	TAXABLE
RATE %	9.3 / 9.2	8.8 / 8.7	8.6 / 8.5	8.5
TENURE (Yrs)	5	15+ 5…	5	5
MAX LIMIT Rs	1500000	100000	NO LIMIT	4.5 / 9 L
LOAN	N.A	RATE +2%	N.A	N.A
5yr TAX FD	IDBI	YES	SBI	OBC
TAXABLE	AXIS		KVB	IOB
RATE %	9 / 9.75	8.75 / 9.5	8.75/ 9	9 / 9.5
5yr TAX FD	NHB	HUDCO
RATE %	9.25 / 9.85	9

India Budget 2013 What matters most!

P Chidambaram budget speech is  known to induce dreams and elevate people to a euphoric state of mind but the fine print in the draft is known to always have a googly and take back more than what he has given…

This budget is insipid and worse it is subtly populist mainly to avoid a ratings downgrade and there is a big risk that the govt will bring in the populist measures like Food security act on the sly once it makes up its mind on going for elections. The budget does not seriously address concerns regarding pathetic growth and stagflation or the twin deficits that the Indian economy currently suffers from. The numbers are also suspect. Read MB , Read BD, Read LM

The govt has already taxed us with High INFLATION which is well above 10.0% and Huge increase in Money Supply, both of which have increased price of gold and housing by 4 to 5 times during the current MMS /Sonia Congress/ UPA 1 &2 govt tenure.

This Budget has given a raw deal to the local Investor class. Equity IPOs , Government IPOs FPOs etc have given a huge negative returns . Equity & Debt  Mutual funds and fixed deposits have given negative returns post inflation in 5 yr period.

TAX FREE INCOME : NO CHANGE ..  😦

INDIVIDUALS: Upto 2,00,000 – Nil

INDIVIDUAL RESIDENTS 60 TO 80 Yrs: Upto 2,50,000 – Nil

INDIVIDUAL RESIDENTS 80 Yrs +: Upto 500,000 – Nil

TAX SLABS

I. Upto 5,00,0000  {10% of the amount exceeding Tax free Income}

II. Upto 10,00,000 –  {I + 20% of the amount over 500000}

III. Above 10,00,000 –  {I + II + 30% of the amount over 1000000}

Tax Credit of Rs 2000 for income upto Rs 500000

Surcharge of 10% on persons with income of over Rs one crore

Dividend Distribution Tax: Surcharge on Dividend Distribution Tax has gone up from 5% to 10%. This has an implication on those is the dividend mode in Debt MF schemes. They will not pay 14.16%, instead of 13.52%. Not much of an implication, though the net dividend would now be lower now.

Securities Transaction Tax The STT on MF/ETF done with the fund houses has been reduced from 0.25% to 0.001%. Similarly the STT on MF/ETF transaction done on the exchange, only the seller will need to pay STT of 0.001%. Again, from an individual investor view point, this may not be very significant as the percentages before and after as both low.

Commodities transaction tax on non-agriculture commodities futures contracts at the same rate as equity futures that is 0.01 per cent of the price of the trade

Investment and Deductions

• First-time home loans up to Rs.25 lakhs  get extra Rs.1 lakh interest deduction (if not exhausted, the balance limit can be claimed next year)
• Inflation-indexed Bonds and National Security Certificate to be introduced
• Investment in RGESS need not be done in 1 year alone but can be done in 3 successive years. Income limit under RGESS raised from Rs.10 lakhs to Rs.12 lakhs
• Surcharge on Dividend Distribution Tax increased from 5% to 10%. So it may be prudent to consider taking the returns in the form of capital gains if it works out better depending on one’s tax bracket
• Reduction in STT on equity and MFs
• Passengers will be allowed to bring in duty free gold jewellery of up to Rs 50,000 in case of men and Rs 1,00,000 in case of women.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

What goes up
Cigarettes, Cigars, Cheroots, High-end mobile phones,Imported luxury cars, High-end motor vehicles, Sports Utility Vehicles,Imported yatch and motorboats, Marbles for flooring, Set-top boxes, Dining in air conditioned restaurants, Silk clothes, Homes and flats, Parking fees.

What goes Down
Jewellery, Precious stones, Cotton garments,Branded apparels, Carpets, Textile floor, Agricultural testing procedures, Imported hazel nuts, Dehulled oat grain, Truck chasis, Sabudana, Ships and vessels, Cinema and films, Machinery for manufacturing of leather goods

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

• Investment Allowance of 15% for investment in plant & machinery exceeding Rs.100 crore will boost capital expenditure
• Surcharge increased from 5% to 10% for companies with Rs.10 crore or more taxable income
• Amnesty Scheme for Service Tax defaulters
• No change in the peak rate of basic customs duty on non-agriculture products and rates of excise duty and service tax of 12 per cent.

 Inputs from Moneycontrol and ET

The Vadra-DLF Tagle

RTI / IAC activist and  Ramon Magsaysay Award winner, Ex IRS turned politician Arvind Kejriwal… has exposed the tangle between DLF and Robert Vadra in his recent expose.

Simple question here is why did DLF a company neck deep in debt having a debt: equity ratio of close to 1:1, doing a fire sale of assets to reduce debt on its highly leveraged balance sheet give Vadra interest free debt be it a loan or an advance?

Direct Involvement:

1. DLF  2. Robert Vadra, the fastest Indian billionaire in recent times with an estimated net worth of a staggering $2.1 Billion, husband of Priyanka Vadra , daughter of Sonia Gandhi and a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family by marriage.

Robert Shares the directorship with his mother Maureen,  others in his family died either by accident or by suicide. Strangely.. his wife Priyanka Vadra has no stake in his companies , which if not sexist is nothing but ring-fencing the brahmastra of Congress.

Indirect Involvement (Nepotism angle)(Crony Capitalism angle):

1. IndiRan National Congress, State and Central Govts and their govt machinery. 2. PSU Banks that provided Loans to DLF and Vadra. 3. Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka Vadra.

Read Hindu: Attack on Vadra is attack on party: Congress

Now Robert Vadra is no ordinary man or aam admi as he first claimed, and being the son in law of the first family of Indian politics has loads of perks. He is a special person or khass admi, as he is exempted from airport security checks , a privilege reserved for President, Vice President, Prime Minister, former presidents, former vice-presidents, Speaker of the Lok Sabha, Chief Justice of India etc … Read this

The SPG Act is a draconian law passed by Indira Gandhi and he is a Special Case as per Mr P Chidambaram in a reply to an RTI Query by a team member of  Avnish Singhs RTI Anonymous.

This news is not new, it was a tad bit stale… but no media house or political party risked itself or its sweat heart deals or its fortunes by exposing the nepotism in the system fearing loss of business, exposure of skeletons in cupboard, the full force of govt machinery DRI CBI etc.. you get the drift!

Robert Vadra posted a message on his Facebook account which read: “Mango people in banana republic.” before closing it.

Read about the Real Estate Bubble and PSU Banks

Value Research: The Realty Bubble 

Vox : Housing bubbles and interest rates

DNA/ Ajit Dayal Are the banks keeping property prices up?

PKDEY: PSU bank loans to realty cos up

Moneylife/Sucheta D: Public sector banks – Loans turning bad

Read about the DLF Vadra Nexus. 

Moneylife/Sucheta D: Kejriwal asks for white paper, SIT probe into Haryana government, DLF and Robert Vadra nexus

FP  Politicians and real estate: Why are we missing the big picture?

Look closely at all the Robert Vadras of Indian politics

Kejriwal breaks ‘Omerta Code’ on DLF-Vadra ‘sweetheart deal’

Plot thickens: Vadra, DLF, and a ‘smoking gun’ of sorts…

Haryana govt is DLF’s agent: Kejriwal’s 5 big allegations

DLF borrows money at 12.38%; lends free to Vadra

Auditors too think DLF and Vadra may have lied about the ‘advance’

 Of course, Robert Vadra is right! We are a ‘banana republic’

BS Vadra: ‘A little help from my friends’

Mutual Funds to cost more?

If regular CPI inflation is not enough be prepared to get lesser returns for the money you have in your mutual funds.

Recently the MF industry had pitched for raising expense ratio, which includes administrative fee and marketing cost, by 25 basis points. Besides, they also made a case for doing away with the sub-ceilings under the expense ratio and pass on the burden of 12 per cent service tax to investors. The govt plans to accept most of the recommendations of the Industry.

So your costs will go up .25% directly, add 12% on whatever the funds charge you.

As things stand the charge structure is non transparent and is not properly conveyed to the investor. Caclub has a good post on Mutual Fund charges.

This is directly punishing the direct investor, because he doesn’t get any commission but lands up subsidizing the investor who uses the services of an agent…

This govt loves to complicate things instead of going back to the good old system of entry load.

All this would be fine if most mutual funds gave a decent return .. but the true picture is far from appealing as most funds have given negative returns over the last two years.

Your only solace will be that you have most likely done better than those that invested in insurance ulip products where the commissions are even much higher.

Pitfalls for the Indian Investor

When a govt is so desperate for capital it could do something to make life for the average Indian Investor a little easier , but this govt like the ones before is making life hell for the average investor with one half baked norm/rule/idea  after another.

Read

Debashis Basu: Stories from Indian savers

Capital Calculus | Anil Padmanabhan : Will UPA seize the moment?

As this govt goes back in time … ie Sonia apes Indira`s disastrous policy, and the FM replicates policy that existed in his first term as FM during Indiras tenure as PM, the markets have tanked.

Govt to deliberate tax measures as investors fret

Then again Indians are smart .. no wonder they show no confidence in this govt by investing in GOLD … and why not ? it is already up 30% yoy, whether the govt and fm taxes it or not!

Mixing Political Interests with National Interests – The big PSU Scam !

Samuel Johnson made this famous pronouncement that patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel on the evening of April 7, 1775

The favourite hobby of UPA politicians is to justify decisions made for their narrow Political Interests as National Interests, and benefit handsomely from this.

Take the 3G scam… Can anyone believe that only Mr. Raja benefited from it?

Every Indian knows that politicians take cuts … what they detest is the fact that even after taking cuts these politicians cant get the work done, so much so that they are ready to forgive if they see tangible on ground benefits . Take the case of the Late Pramod Mahajan, a witty minister with dealings with Reliance Tele, who ushered in the telecom revolution, which cut per call rate from Rs 20 /Rs 16 to Rs 1.

Currently the Congress UPA is playing the National Interests card to rob the taxpayer, the average citizen and moreso the small shareholders of multiple navratna PSUs and  the policyholders of multiple psus like the Life Insurance Corp of India, which has now become the unofficial bailout mechanism for the disinvestment ministry.

Thankfully activist foreign funds that have invested in such firms, who have nothing to loose, are taking on such company managements and the government, a luxury most Indians cannot afford as they fear the draconian enforcement establishment and harassment mechanism the govt operates.

The Children’s Investment Fund (TCI)  will file a legal suit against Coal India’s board in the next two weeks in additional to the law suit against the government of India under the UK-Indian bilateral treaty.

The nononsense CIO of TCF Chris Hohn added:

The only relevant thing will be the public interest. There is a concept of the rule of law, which is that nobody, including the government, is above the law.
So, if the government advertised that they wanted to give away 2G licences to telecoms for free, that’s not legal. Even if they put it in the prospectus, even if they tell everybody, it’s not legal. Our legal case will revolve around public interest.

Sooner or later the people of India will realise that the system is ripping them off and benefiting only a handful of wealthy industrialists. We think that FSA coal pricing system is encouraging massive corruption within India.

This video is worth watching…

http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/business/will-file-suit-despite-cil-board-decisionfsa_693207.html

India Union Budget 2012/13 What matters most!

Thanks to the total failure of the UPA 2 Govt to govern, the problems i had talked about  in India Budget 2011/12 What matters most! have only worsened.

Fiscal defect is 1.3% higher than estimate… Wow!!  something which will have to be funded by market borrowing. Reduction of Inflation due to base effect offers little relief to the aam admi who is finding the burden unbearable.

Indians are facing deeply entrenched inflation, tight liquidity, high interest rate, industrial slowdown, zero reforms and negative market sentiment that have lead to Stagflation for the last few months, something which will worsen in the coming months if govt doesn’t get its act together.

Pronob is known as the chief troubleshooter and problem fixer of the Congress upa govt …  and this seems to be  reflected in his budget.

TAX SLABS

Income upto 2 lakhs                          Tax payable   Nil
Income upto 2.5 lakhs                      Tax payable   Nil for Senior citizens 60 yrs and above
Income 2 lakhs to 5 lakhs                Tax payable  10%
Income 5 lakhs to 10 lakhs             Tax payable  20%
Income above 10 lakhs                    Tax payable  30%

Senior Citizens with no biz income freed from advance tax burden

10,000 bank interest tax-free. (Old Sec 80L revived)

Cost of preventive health checkup upto a limit of Rs 5000 permitted U/s 80D.

New Adult Duty free goods limit is Rs 35000/- , for Child upto 10yrs  Rs 15000/-

Sale of residential property exempted from capital gains if invested in equity or equipment of an SME.

Disappointment for lower and middle middle class with income upto 5/6 lakh who face a double whammy of the biggest tax i.e. high Inflation and overall higher prices due to increase in fuel prices, customs duties and service taxes . Increase in the tax free income far to low and should have been at-least Rs 2.5 Lakhs considering inflation. 

Financial Responsibility and Subsidy Reform Proposals

Fiscal deficit in 2011/12 revised to 5.9% of GDP from 4.6% of earlier target.

Fiscal defict 2012/13 to be at 5.1%

FY 13 net market borrowing at Rs 4.8 lakh crores

Gross tax at 10.6% of GDP

GDP expected to grow at 6.9%

Current account defict to be at 3.6%

Economy to grow at 7.6% in 2012/13

Central subsidies to be under 2% of GDP

To bring down subsidy to 1.7 % of GDP in the next 3 years

To roll out computerized scheme for fertilizer subsidy transfer

Direct transfer of subsidy for kerosene initiated

Pay market rate for LPG Cylinder, direct transfer of subsidy for  LPG

Remove bottlenecks in agriculture, energy, transport, coal, power and national highways

To become self sufficient in urea production in next 5 years

How credible are the numbers ? Taking into consideration the pathetic track record of the UPA  can one sincerely believe in the estimates especially on govt borrowings ?  Fuel subsidy allocation not realistic.

All talk and repetition of promises, but no real concrete action on fiscal consolidation or dealing with burgeoning subsidy. No action on dealing with supply side issues only repetition of promises. No vision to change the spending pattern from consumption to investment.

Reform Postponed

DTC implementation deferred for one more year

GST to be operational by August 2012

White paper on Black Money

Capital and Debt Markets Proposals

 STT on delivery cut to 0.1% from 0.25%. 

Rs 30,000 cr divestment target in FY 13

PAN for identification of Investors and tracking evasion.

Central KYC database.

Rajiv Gandhi Equity (Tax Exemption) Savings Scheme with a lock in of 3yrs for new investors investing Rs 50000 on income below 10 Lakhs.

Change in IPO guidelines to promote small town participation

Recapitalization of PSU banks

Rs 10000 crore of tax fee bonds for power sector

Will allow external commercial borrowing for power, housing road construction companies

Govt doubles allocation for tax-free bonds to Rs 60,000 crore for financing infrastructure projects in 2012/13

To allow qualified foreign investors in Indian corporate debt markets

Dull/drab and a major disappointment to market participants,  I doubt if two bit schemes like Rajiv ESS will revive the govt disinvestment program which is in doldrums. All said and done people have to make money out of govt IPOs and tax exemption with a 3 yr lock-in is meaningless .

Fact:  1 yr plus return on govt IPOs: Punjab n Sind bank -31%   SCI FPO -50% SJVN -20% PTC finance -43.5% MOIL -26.5%  Equity / Large cap MFs 1 year return are negative.  Gold ETF has returned +29%  that after the cool off in gold prices.

Indirect Tax Proposals

Service tax,  Excise duty now 12% up 2%

GOLD bar duty doubled, increased to 4% and 10%

Negative list for Service tax introduced .

All services will be taxed except those in a 17-item negative list including  Govt services, school education, renting of residences, public transport, animal husbandry, agri produce. Healthcare, charities, sportsmen, car-parking are exempt.

Cost of everything will go up by 4 to 5% as businesses pass on the hikes…Gold , Cigarettes, bidis, Diamonds, bicycles, luxury items, eating out, white goods like AC and fridges. Even telephone bills are set to get more expensive.

Hiking duties on gold is a desperate attempt by a govt to curb investment in gold. This will make little difference in gold demand or asset price inflation if the govt cant curb its rash spending and resulting inflation expectations especially when EU and US are in low interest rate and QE mode and markets give sustained negative returns and an investor tries to protect his capital. 

All in all this budget hits the lower middle class and is most inflationary especially for the middle to lower middle class single income multiple kids household with an income of 2 lakh who sees no benefit from income tax rebate but has to pay double for his gas cylinder and between 2% to 5% more on every good and service from telephone to food to branded items.